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AGU: Adapt and thrive
Each year weather-related phenomena such as
hurricanes, tornadoes, forest fires, flooding, heavy snows and drought cause
damage worth billions of dollars across the US. Knowledge about how climate
change will affect these and other factors is critical for local and regional
planning, supporting the introduction of carbon reduction ideas such as
cap-and-trade, forecasting for renewable energy sources like wind turbines, and
predicting the release of methane from permafrost, according to Jack Fellows,
vice-president of the University
Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR).
But decision-makers need
information on a local and regional scale that climate models can't always
provide. So UCAR-member universities have started discussions with
decision-makers about their requirements; these discussions were extended to
other academics at an AGU session.
"We need more user/stakeholder-driven
research, not curiosity-driven research," agreed Jonathan Overpeck of the University of Arizona, who
has been considering what a national climate service could offer
decision-makers.
"The participation of universities and
decision-makers is critical to help us plan for climate change and the
networking should be improved," said Fellows. "Those states and
regions that don't get involved are going to lose out on economic opportunities
and also probably suffer more damage." Overpeck too reckons that climate
adaptation is an opportunity for people to be entrepreneurial. "It's not
just a chance to save their skin but to make a lot of money too," he said.
Fellows is also participating in creating a
national climate literacy programme, and globe.gov, a scheme that
encourages children to take local environmental measurements and hopes to
involve millions of children in 110 countries over the next couple of years.
In fact, around 35 US
states
have set up or started to consider climate adaptation plans. In late
2006 in
Chicago, for example, 26 business, government and scientific leaders
joined
together to form the Chicago climate task force and plan the city's preparations
for climate change (see http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org for details). The team took the approach that the
climate
measures recommended for the future could also improve current quality
of life.
"Even a city not vulnerable to sea-level rise has needs," explained
Don Wuebbles of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
According to the task force, 70% of
greenhouse gas emissions in Chicago come from buildings and energy supply for buildings, so the
mitigation aspects of the plan focus on these areas. Many of the measures are
dual purpose, acting as adaptations as well as mitigating greenhouse gas
levels, for example green roofs help adsorb stormwater but also reduce carbon
emissions. The team recommends cuts in carbon emissions of 80% by 2050 and 25%
by 2020 to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
As well as a rise in average temperatures
of 3-4 degrees C or 7-8 degrees C, depending on whether you use the lowest or
highest emissions scenario, Chicago is likely to see an increase in the frequency of major heat waves.
As a result, the city, hospitals and other organizations have updated their
emergency response plans and infrared technology is being employed to identify
hotspots in the city. Stormwater is also likely to be an increased problem so
the plan identifies measures such as using permeable pavements and parking lots
to remove the water fast.
"Chicago sees the
Climate Action Plan as a quality of life plan," said Wuebbles, who believes
that the framework is suitable for use in other cities.
