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Snowman-based forecasting system proves unreliable
Andreas Weigel of MeteoSwiss brought delegates at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) assembly in Vienna disappointing news this morning during his talk entitled “From climate predictability to end user applications: on the route to more reliable seasonal ensemble forecasts”. It turns out that Switzerland’s oldest weather forecasting system – the Böög snowman – is not reliable. Although in 2003 it took a long time to burn the snowman at the end of the winter and set off the explosives inside, successfully predicting a very hot summer, in other years there has been no correlation between length of time to burn and summer temperatures. Weigener, winner of an EGU outstanding young scientists award, is now consoling himself by working on coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models for seasonal prediction instead.
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