More than half (59%) of the respondents in Vision Prize’s most recently completed poll of experts believe that a 1 metre sea-level rise will happen by the year 2100 if governmental policies do not change. A further 40% reckon that the change will occur after 2100.

The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I report predicted that, in a high-emissions scenario, the global sea-level would rise by 52–98 cm by the year 2100. The Vision Prize poll respondents appear to agree with the analysis of the IPCC’s findings on sea-level rise at the RealClimate blog. Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, writes that in the fifth IPCC report "the projections for the future are much higher and more credible than those in the fourth report, but possibly still a bit conservative".


 When it comes to solar geoengineering, 88% of respondents reckon it’s unlikely or very unlikely that solar geoengineering will be deployed at a global scale before 2050. The inclusion of geoengineering in the summary for policymakers of the fifth IPCC working group I report was, according to Jack Stilgoe, a lecturer at University College London, unexpected. "The big surprise comes in the final paragraph, with a mention of geoengineering," he wrote. "In the scientific world, a final paragraph is often the place to put caveats and suggestions for further research. In the political world, a final paragraph is a coda, a big finish, the place for a triumphant, standing-ovation-inducing summary. The IPCC tries to straddle both worlds."

In other findings of the Vision Prize poll, 38% of respondents believed that Africa is more likely than other geographic regions to suffer from weather disasters caused by climate change; 92% thought that burning the world’s current fossil fuel reserves would mean it’s likely or very likely that Earth’s temperature will increase to levels not experienced for millions of years; and 68% selected renewables or energy efficiency as the technology most likely to help significantly slow climate change this century.

Head to Vision Prize for a full breakdown of the results.

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