The aim of the December negotiations is to agree a successor for the first phase of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's Kyoto Protocol, which expires at the end of 2012.
The Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention, which includes all 192 parties, will look at negotiating text covering a "shared vision for long-term cooperative action, enhanced action on adaptation, mitigation and finance, technology and capacity-building".
The Ad Hoc Working Group on Further commitments for Annex 1 Countries under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP), meanwhile, will focus on amending the protocol, including the emission reduction commitments of 37 industrialised countries for its second phase.
Delegates in Bonn will also discuss how to improve emissions trading, coverage of emissions credits, the Kyoto Protocol's "project-based mechanisms" and options for the treatment of land-use, land-use change and forestry.
"It is important that we complete some of the more solvable issues here in Bonn so that we can then focus on the more difficult ones later on in the negotiations," said John Ashe, chair of AWG-KP.
According to Saleemul Huq of the International Institute for Environment and Development, who is at the negotiations, the draft negotiating text has some positive and some negative features. "As it is based on submissions by all countries, it is very thorough and covers all of the issues," he said. "But this also means that the text contains many contradictory statements. The negotiations that are underway now in Bonn and which will conclude in Copenhagen must resolve all of these contradictions. Countries have very little time to reach a consensus on the final text."
Huq believes one key issue is that there is no agreement about how legally binding the final agreement will be – it could be just a "decision". There's also no solid agreement yet on targets by which rich countries will need to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. "The proposals range from practically nothing to a 40% reduction on 1990 levels by 2020," said Huq. "We urgently need a steep reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to limit the extent of warming and lessen the impacts of climate change."
What's more, it's not yet clear what promises the developing nations – including large economies such as Brazil, China, India and South Africa – will need to make in terms of reducing their own emissions, and how binding these promises will need to be.
"Resolving all of these issues will entail hard negotiation and central to this is the final piece of the puzzle – money," said Huq in a press statement. "This is the glue that will hold the final agreement together but so far it is the weakest part. The rich countries have so far made no serious pledges to provide the funding that will be essential to pay for reducing emissions, for adapting to climate change impacts, for transferring technologies to poorer nations, and for avoiding deforestation."
Huq believes that until rich countries make some serious pledges, the rest of the negotiations will suffer because it will be impossible to agree actions without knowing how they will be funded. "A major problem here is that countries take part in the UN climate change negotiations through their environment ministries, but it is the finance ministries that must decide how much money to spend tackling climate change," he said. "We need finance ministers and heads of state, especially those in the industrialised countries, to face the reality of climate change and respond responsibly. European Union finance ministers are meeting this month and the US Treasury is putting together its budget. The eyes of the world will be on the capitals of these and other wealthy nations, awaiting the signal that the rich world will finally accept its need to step up to the challenge and provide the large sums of money needed to address climate change."
Running alongside the two working groups negotiating specifically on outcomes in Copenhagen, the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice will look at impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, the development and transfer of technologies, reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries and methodological issues under the Kyoto Protocol, such as common metrics for calculating the carbon dioxide equivalence of greenhouse gases. The Subsidiary Body for Implementation, meanwhile, will examine the development and transfer of technologies and capacity-building for developing countries.
The talks in Bonn will continue until 12 June. There will be a further three rounds of talks – in Bonn in mid-August, in Bangkok in late September and in Barcelona in early November – before the December meeting in Copenhagen.