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A Copenhagen wrap-up: blame and options

Why did Copenhagen end in a disaster? Of course, there are a multitude of reasons. The negotiations were not well prepared, the personal dynamics did not work out very well. A major point is probably that the negotiations were overloaded with too much content and too high complexity. Consider for example that a global cap requires binding commitment from 193 countries, or at least of 17 countries that emit more than 90% of all greenhouse gases. If one country, for what reason whatsoever, does not agree to its “appropriate share” (assuming for the moment that such a share can be determined), then other countries will have reduced incentives to stick with their original commitments. A simultaneous global monetary transfer does not simplify matters.

Beyond these general issues it is very clear that the global powers failed in assuming their respective responsibilities.

European Union. The European Union was close to upscale its commitment of 20% reduction from 1990 till 2020 to 30% or 40%. As a coal dependent country, Poland blocked this target. However, it is also a sign of weak leadership of Merkel, Sarkozy and Brown that they could not forge a deal with Poland. Germany embarrassed itself with its new minister of development, Dirk Niebel, who wants any climate fund not to be additional of existing development aid.

United States: The United States could not agree to any numbers. The major problem, of course, is the US Senate where a 3–4% reduction until 2020 (with baseline year 1990) is still up in the air. Hence, Obama could not even commit to this low number. Furthermore, the financial contribution for adaptation in the world’s poorest nations is not more than a third of that what the EU and Japan committed each for 2010–2012. Here, Obama could have shown much more leadership. Somewhat worrying is the discourse within U.S. media, providing the playing field for disappointing US policies. The scope of the overall challenge is rarely mentioned. In the New York Times, some hacked e-mails were blown up to a big story without getting the context right. As a result of wildly fragmented story lines, it is possible that a significant minority of US senators considers climate change to be a scam.

China

By now China is the world largest GHG emitter. Without China, there is no solution. China displays some political will in reducing the carbon intensity of it economy. However, China does not agree to a binding cap while it would have financial resources at hand to realize ambitious measures. China played a very self-confident role in Copenhagen, and wants to be understood as a global leader. However, for a global leader one ingredient is missing: assuming responsibility (see also the US and the EU).

Enough of the blame. Let’s look for a way out of this mess. One big problem is that the discussion was framed in terms of burden sharing, money to be paid, and economic loss. This is the facile view of the story.

There is also another, bright perspective. It is bottom-up, as pointed out by Californian governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Nobel prize-winner Elinor Ostrom. Let us look at the specific perspective of the above mentioned world regions (real action probably has to come from communities, climbing up the political decision-making ladder).

Consider that a first mover towards ambitious emission reductions will gain also most of the resulting economic advantages (results of a meta-study called RECIPE). There is a clear rationale for, e.g. the EU, to commit to more ambitious targets.

The US would profit enormously from emission reductions, notably gaining energy independence. Super-costly wars in the Middle East would not be necessary anymore. This would free scarce US resources, e.g. for guaranteeing safe trade routes in world oceans – much more rewarding for the US and the world.

China has to gain a lot from reduced coal consumption. China is still the world’s air pollution haven with hundred and thousands of fatalities every year. As a result, life quality is not even closely growing with GDP. In fact, there are a multitude of co-benefits for local or regional sustainable policies.

Fortunately, many citizens and politicians understand that climate change mitigation can increase social welfare, also locally. We need to work hard to realize such policies as soon as possible.

Posted by Felix Creutzig on December 19, 2009 6:58 PM |

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Comments (2)

  • 1 dave elliott December 26, 2009 1:52 PM

    The COP15 ‘Copenhagen Accord’ was produced by the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa, none of whom currently face legally binding emissions reduction targets under the existing Kyoto Protocol. Some developing countries objected to it- including Venezuala. Certainly it has only weak links to the main focus of the UNFCCC negotiations on a post-Kyoto agreement- and UNFCC members simply ‘noted’ the Accord. Some blamed the US for what is widely seen as a weak outcome - but China was also a target. But apologists for the unilateral ‘Accord’ said that at least it was something to show for all the COP 15 efforts. And that it was something of a triumph for Obama to get China on board. Others however saw the fault line being between those who wanted a continued Kyoto type legal targets approach (including the EU and some developing countries) and those, like the US and China, who wanted the freedom to develop their own national plans within a loose Accord. This conflict won’t go away. It will no doubt resurface at the intermediary meeting in Bonn in June, and at COP 16 in Mexico City in December. Meanwhile, under the terms of the Accord, UNFCC member countries have been asked to submit national plans for emission reductions via mitigation actions by the end of January. Crucially, it seems that a proposed exclusion of nuclear projects from national mitigation plans was removed from the texts. So, the use of nuclear energy can be included in the list of mitigation actions to be sent to the UNFCCC. That too could lead to conflict.