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Germany leads the way

In March, in the wake of the Fukushima disaster, the German government shut down all of Germanys oldest nuclear plants and, like many other countries, set a review of safety and policy in motion. Then in April, Secretary of State for the Environment and Nuclear Safety, Jürgen Becker, told Reuters: “A decision has been taken to shut down eight plants before the end of this year and they definitely won’t be reactivated. And the remaining nine will be shut down by the end of the decade.”

This policy was then backed by the German Association of Energy and Water Industries, BDEW, which said that nuclear should be phased out by 2020 or at the latest by 2023. It called on the government to set everything in motion to speed up the transition toward a stable, ecologically responsible and affordable energy mix without nuclear energy. ‘The catastrophe at the Fukushima reactors marks a new era and the BDEW therefore calls for a swift and complete exit from using nuclear power.’

The association represents about 1,800 utilities, among them the operators of the country’s 17 nuclear reactors, which, when all were running, generated 26% of Gemany’s electricity. The two biggest operators, E.ON AG and RWE AG, opposed to the decision, but were outvoted.

The new approach is likely to be popular. According to a public opinion survey conducted by GfK Marktforschung in April, after Fukushima, only 5% of German consumers now consider nuclear energy to be a viable option in the longer term- down from 10% in January- with only 4% saysing it was necessary to invest in this type of energy generation for reasons of climate protection. By contrast, there is widespread and growing support for further investment in the expansion of renewable energy, with 86% backing solar (Jan: 83%), and 80% wind energy (Jan: 72%)

Can they do it? German Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen told der Spiegel that he was confident that it could be done given the rapid growth of renewables and the potential for energy saving, but ‘everyone will have to invest in the energy turnaround. The expansion of renewable energy, the power lines it requires and the storage facilities will cost money. That has to be clear. But after the investments are made, the returns will follow - I don’t doubt that.’

He went on ’ First we’ll have to focus on retrofitting buildings. The €460 million ($653 million) currently budgeted for that program won’t be enough. But every euro in government subsidies will trigger seven or eight euros in private investment, which also translates into tax revenues. Everyone can benefit in the long term, from citizens to the economy to the environment.’

In terms of renewables, there would be no need to cover Germany with wind farms ’ We achieve the biggest capacities by replacing smaller wind turbines on land with more powerful ones and by generating wind energy in the North and Baltic Seas’. He concluded ‘The events in Fukushima marked a turning point for all of us. Now we jointly support phasing out nuclear energy as quickly as possible and phasing in renewable energies’.

Germany already gets 17% of its power from renewables, and the potential for expansion is certainly there long term. In addition to backing a nuclear phase out, last years ‘Energiekonzept’ review, produced by the Federal Environment Ministry, BMU, looked to renewables supplying 35% of electricity by 2020, 50% by 2030, 65% by 2040, 80% by 2050. It also planned major increases in grid integration with the rest of the EU. It saw offshore wind as a major growth area- it wanted 25 GW in place by 2030. At present it has around 27GW in place but mostly on land, plus around 16GW of solar PV. In addition to a large hydro contribution, including pumped storage facilities, major new geothermal and biomass projects are on the way, with biogas seen as key new option, replacing imported Natural Gas. The review also called for primary energy consumption to be halved by 2050, and overall, the review aimed for a 40% by 2020 CO2 reduction target.

With nuclear to be removed by around 2020, the renewables expansion programme and energy saving initiatives will have to be accelerated-although the original plan assumed the then planned gradual nuclear phase out. It won’t be easy. But the political will now seems to be there to try. And it’s argued that although the initial capital cost may be relatively high, the overall cost will fall, as renewables begin to replace expensive imported fossil fuel and prices fall under the Feed In Tariff system . www.wupperinst.org/uploads/txwiprojekt/EEGExpand_report.pdf

What about elsewhere? The UK only gets 18% of its electricity from nuclear, so a phase out ought to be easier than in Germany- if the political will was there. We have the world best renewable resources after all- far more than Germany. France gets 74% of its electricity from nuclear, so it’s a harder nut to crack, but opposition to nuclear has mounted (it’s now running at 42% in favour of a phase out, as against 55% opposed) and a 2006 study suggested a phase out was technically possible by 2040: see www.ieer.org/reports/energy/france/

Japan got 29% of its electricity from nuclear before the accident, and imports most of the rest of its energy, but it now has a massive incentive to change. There have been huge anti nuclear protests Japan - 17,500 people marched on April 10th. As I mentioned in a previous Blog, a 2003 study saw a transition to 100% renewables as feasible- and green energy technology has moved on a lot since then: www.energyrichjapan.info

And globally, there are now scenarios showing that 100% from renewables by 2050 or even earlier is possible: www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html and www.wwf.org.uk/researchcentre/researchcentre_results.cfm?uNewsID=4565 Germany may be showing the way, but it is not alone. For example, Denmark has set out a vision for energy supply in 2050, aiming to become independent of coal, oil and natural gas by 2050- it has no nuclear plants. www.kemin.dk/en-US/Sider/frontpage.aspx

Some EU countries (e.g. non nuclear Austria) are already getting 50% or more of their power from renewables, and there are scenarios suggesting that the EU as a whole could get to almost 100% renewables by 2050, at reasonable costs. e.g. see: www.roadmap2050.eu and www.pwc.co.uk/eng/publications/100percentrenewable_electricity.html

A non-nuclear future? There are still many who see it as both impossible and also as undesirable. China, may have halted its nuclear programme temporarily and, like most countries, is reviewing it policies. But although programmes may slow, the non-nuclear vision has yet to be widely accepted. So what happens in Germany is likely to be crucial. If they can do it, others may follow.

Posted by Dave Elliott on April 16, 2011 11:45 AM | Permalink